serendipity:

IT DOESN’T HAPPEN BY ACCIDENT

“Serendipity has been misunderstood for too long. Ever since Horace Walpole coined the term in 1754, we've tended to see serendipity as a fortunate accident - an unexpected collision of timing and luck. But that's not how breakthroughs actually happen. This book argues instead for something I call engineered serendipity - the deliberate creation of environments, networks, and interactions that significantly raise the likelihood of valuable, unexpected discoveries. Serendipity doesn't have to be left to chance; we can systematically and intentionally design for it and create the opportunities for it to happen.

Consider how innovation really works. Steve Jobs and Steve Wozniak didn't stumble into Apple's success by random luck alone. They thrived because they operated within Silicon Valley’s rich, interconnected network of investors, inventors, and early adopters. Likewise, the Lunar Society in 18th-century Birmingham generated world-changing inventions not by accident but because it consciously brought diverse minds together in structured yet fluid interactions. These examples - and countless others throughout history - illustrate a fundamental truth: breakthroughs become probable rather than merely possible when the right structures are in place.

Over the past few years, I have become increasingly convinced we need a rigorous and practical framework to understand and apply engineered serendipity. Drawing on insights from Erasmus, Francis Bacon, Charles Darwin, Stuart Kauffman, and others, this book blends theoretical rigour with practical experience drawn from my own career, from predicting the digital revolution at the Post Office’s Long Range Studies Division, to founding companies such as Abcam and Analysys, advising governments, and creating influential networks such as CSaP and the Cambridge Network.

Time and again, I've witnessed how apparent luck emerges from deliberately designed environments - places where “weak ties” bridge disconnected domains, institutional boundaries remain porous, and people are trained to spot and act on unexpected opportunities. This isn’t luck; it’s engineered serendipity in action.

This book itself exemplifies serendipity. Just when I thought I'd completed my manuscript, unexpected conversations kept introducing new dimensions.

Chance allowed me to rearrange my diary and attend a feast in Cambridge, where a meeting with Stephen Fry nudged me toward Erasmus’ In Praise of Folly, and despite my reluctance at being given more to think about, added an invaluable perspective. Even technology played a part: AI agents challenged my arguments, hunted down obscure references, tested alternative frameworks, and revealed hidden assumptions - becoming, in a sense, part of the engineered network this book examines.

Yet none of this - the conceptual framing, structural coherence, or clarity of expression - would have emerged without Ian Phillipson. Over a year of deep collaboration, Ian listened closely, drew out ideas, drafted and refined sections, and through patient discussion helped to shape the overall trajectory of this argument. This final manuscript reflects our shared dialogue and his remarkable ability to make complex ideas clear and compelling. It is no exaggeration to say that without Ian’s insight, care, and relentless commitment, this book would not exist.

What you'll find here is a theory - but not a rigid system. The Serendipity Systems Model offered in these pages is a flexible framework, built on the insight that meaningful discoveries emerge most readily at what Stuart Kauffman describes as the "edge of chaos": environments structured enough to harness new insights yet open enough to welcome novelty.

Whether you're an entrepreneur, policymaker, technologist, or simply someone intrigued by how the world truly works, I hope this book will help you see serendipity not as something to await passively, but as something we can actively create. In a world increasingly obsessed with control, learning to harness the unexpected through engineered serendipity may become the most strategic skill of all.”

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David Cleevely, Author

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David Cleevely, Author of book Serendipity.
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AUTHOR

David Cleevely, CBE FReng FIET

Praise for Serendipity: It Doesn’t Happen by Accident

  • "Most serendipitously, the story behind the origins of the word 'Serendipity' have been a millIon pound question on Who Wants To Be A Millionaire? David Cleevely winningly shows that it’s a million pound question for all of us. This refreshing and reassuring book is a wonderful reminder that success and happiness don’t have to come from squeezing tight and working yourself into anxiety. Sometimes, if we let them, Dame Fortune and Mistress Chance can take us by the hand ..."

    Stephen Fry - Actor, Writer and Broadcaster

  • “David doesn’t just write about serendipity—he creates it. This is a powerful guide to building the future through connection, curiosity, and purpose.”

    Reid Hoffman - Co-founder of LinkedIn and author of Superagency: What Could Possibly Go Right with Our AI Future

  • “How do you engineer serendipity? This question might seem paradoxical but this wonderful book explains why unexpected successes can be less surprising than they seem - and how to create the conditions that make success in any endeavour more likely.”

    Dame Diane Coyle - Leading economist and Bennett Professor of Public Policy at Cambridge.

  • "As someone immersed in exponential technologies and systemic change, I found this book a revelation. Cleevely doesn’t just talk about innovation — he shows how we can design for it. Essential reading for anyone trying to build resilient institutions or shape the future."

    Azeem Azhar - Founder of Exponential View and author of “The Exponential Age”

  • “This book turns an elusive idea into practical guidance. Cleevely explains, with authority and urgency, how schools, universities and government can engineer the ‘happy accidents’ that power real innovation.”

    Baroness Sally Morgan - Former Minister of State for Women, Chair of Ofsted.

  • "David is bang on the money here. Most institutional decision-making proceeds with the intention of minimising the effects of chance. Yet, in a fat-tailed, probabilistic world, it is often a far better approach to do everything you possibly can to try to improve your odds of good fortune.”

    Rory Sutherland - Vice Chairman, Ogilvy and author of Alchemy: The Dark Art and Curious Science of Creating Magic in Brands, Business, and Life

  • “This is an important analysis. It is also challenging and difficult. David Cleevely is right to raise these ideas, based on his extensive experience. The resulting debate will not finish quickly.”

    Lord Richard Wilson - Former Permanent Under-Secretary of State for the Cabinet Office

  • “David shows, with scholarly depth and practical wisdom, that the ‘accidents’ behind discovery can be nurtured—just as we nurture public health. A vital guide for leaders who care about evidence-based progress and human flourishing.”

    Baroness Black of Strome - DBE, FRCP, FMedSci, former Principal of Newnham College, Cambridge, and expert adviser on health and work to the UK government

  • "David Cleevely brilliantly shows that the chance of unpredicted innovations can be increased by organisations and individuals following some basic principles.  Among the fascinating case-studies and personal stories, he emphasises the vital importance of networking - perhaps appropriate for an author with 10,000 contacts on his phone."

    Sir David Spiegelhalter FRS - Emeritus Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk at the University of Cambridge and author of The Art of Uncertainty: How to Navigate Chance, Ignorance, Risk and Luck (2024)

  • “At a time when policy makers are looking for ways to boost innovation, productivity, start-ups and growth, in Britain and beyond, Cleevely's book is a powerful clarion call for action. It shows that serendipity is not a mere "accident", but a set of phenomena that could and should be designed, and that we can all find inspiration from examples where this has emerged - not just in the well-known American cases, such as Silicon Valley, but from inspiring British stories too, be that 20th century Cambridge or the little known 18th century Lunar Society in Birmingham and more. Timely, provocative and lucid, this should be required reading for educationalists, policy makers, urban planners - as well as any would-be entrepreneur.”

    Gillian Tett OBE - Award-winning author and Financial Times journalist

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LAUNCH EVENTS

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House of Lords Science & Technology Committee

24th June 2025
Parliament

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Official Serendipity Book Launch!

25th June 2025
Glasshouse, Cambridge

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Centre for Science and Policy Annual Conference 2025

24th June 2025
The Royal Society

Serendipity Blog

Serendipity Blog
The Cymru Connection: What a 60-Second Game Teaches About Networks & Serendipity
David Cleevely
The Cymru Connection: What a 60-Second Game Teaches About Networks & Serendipity
David Cleevely

"Wherever you are in the world, we'll know somebody in common - give me sixty seconds."

With that cheerful wager Welsh comedian Elis James begins each round of The Cymru Connection on BBC Radio 5 Live. A caller rings from Carmarthen, Cardiff or a Welsh exile in Auckland - or even Tokyo; they have one minute to identify a mutual acquaintance with Elis.

Read More →
David Cleevely
Serendipity Loves a Funnel: Why it doesn’t happen by accident
David Cleevely
Serendipity Loves a Funnel: Why it doesn’t happen by accident
David Cleevely

Nearly fifty years ago, my wife and I coaxed an ageing Hillman Husky across the Skye ferry to visit a remote distillery. Standing at the locked gates, we bumped into our Cambridge neighbours - 570 miles from home. Pure coincidence? Not quite.

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David Cleevely
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